Question

Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?

Resolved:Yes

60 comments60

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

31.5%

(28% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31.5%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 26, 2024

Closes:

Jul 27, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 27, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

96%

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?

80%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

76%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jul 26, 2024

Closes:

Jul 27, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 27, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Courtroom Earthquake: How a 7-2 SCOTUS Opinion Cracked California’s Climate Wall

PJ Media•Jun 21, 2025

Justice Jackson Warns of 'Reputational Cost' to Supreme Court After Ruling

Newsweek•Jun 21, 2025

US Supreme Court lets fuel producers challenge California emissions rules

Al Jazeera•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

96%

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?

80%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

76%