Question

Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:Yes

60 comments60

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

70%

(60% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 26, 2024

Closes:

Jul 27, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

68%

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

22%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?

0.1%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 26, 2024

Closes:

Jul 27, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

68%

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

22%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?

0.1%