Question

Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?

Resolved:No

61 comments61

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

50%

(38.8% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Jul 29, 2024

Closes:

Jul 30, 2024

Resolves:

Aug 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 30, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Emmanuel Macron’s Bid to Divide the Left Is Paying Off

Jacobin•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?

Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?

25%

Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?

15%

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Jul 29, 2024

Closes:

Jul 30, 2024

Resolves:

Aug 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 30, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Emmanuel Macron’s Bid to Divide the Left Is Paying Off

Jacobin•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?

Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?

25%

Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?

15%