34 forecasters

Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?

15%chance

15%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 30, 2024

Closes:

Jul 31, 2024

Resolved:

Sep 30, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 31, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Update: Map Shows US Forces in Caribbean As Venezuela Watches On

Newsweek•Sep 15, 2025

US Jets Fly to Venezuela's Neighbor Amid Tensions in Caribbean

Newsweek•Sep 10, 2025

Trump Hints at Escalation in Venezuela as Maduro Scrambles

PJ Media•Sep 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch