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Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?
On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'
Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council, Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as 'just not good enough,' urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming 'we're better than that.'
Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?
In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution.
A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities.
A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.