Question
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
Total Forecasters54
Community Prediction
5%
(1% - 10%)
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 27, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 27, 2024
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
7%
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
80%
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
10%
Authors:
Opened:Jul 27, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 27, 2024
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
7%
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
80%
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
10%