30 forecasters

When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?

Current estimate

30 Jul 2026

(13 Jun 2026 20:43 - 21 Jun 2027)

4.2 months this week

Forecast Timeline

Top Key Factors

Closed-model IMO–score improvement rate

Delays

Speed of open-source replication (AIMO leaderboard performance)

Delays

Delay between closed-model capability and public release

Hastens