Question

Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?

Resolved:No

60 comments60

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

50%

(35% - 60.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 1, 2024

Closes:

Aug 2, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 2, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Map Shows States With Highest Levels of Tiny, Toxic Air Pollution

Newsweek•Jun 16, 2025

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Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?

20%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 1, 2024

Closes:

Aug 2, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 2, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Map Shows States With Highest Levels of Tiny, Toxic Air Pollution

Newsweek•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?

20%