Question

Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

59 comments59

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

16%

(10% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 31, 2024

Closes:

Aug 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labour’s 30 hours free childcare will not benefit the poorest families

Canary•Sep 1, 2025

I have seen the extent of child poverty in the UK and I say this: the two-child benefit cap must go | Stephen Cottrell

Guardian•Sep 1, 2025

Warning Labour’s benefit changes will create two-tier system lasting ‘decades’

Independent•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?

55%

Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?

31%

Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?

80%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 31, 2024

Closes:

Aug 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labour’s 30 hours free childcare will not benefit the poorest families

Canary•Sep 1, 2025

I have seen the extent of child poverty in the UK and I say this: the two-child benefit cap must go | Stephen Cottrell

Guardian•Sep 1, 2025

Warning Labour’s benefit changes will create two-tier system lasting ‘decades’

Independent•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?

55%

Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?

31%

Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?

80%