Question

Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

59 comments59

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

16%

(10% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 31, 2024

Closes:

Aug 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Two mothers denied ‘rape clause’ exception to benefit cap discriminated against, UK court told

Guardian•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?

58.8%

Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?

80%

Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?

70%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jul 31, 2024

Closes:

Aug 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Two mothers denied ‘rape clause’ exception to benefit cap discriminated against, UK court told

Guardian•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?

58.8%

Will the UK join or create a youth mobility scheme with the EU before 2030?

80%

Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?

70%