• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
69 comments
224 forecasters

Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?

0.5%chance
0.5%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
johnnycaffeinelbiii
Opened:Aug 5, 2024
Closes:Sep 1, 2024
Resolved:Sep 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 7, 2024
🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
2024 Leaderboard
Spectator (UK) logo
Would Israel carry out assassinations in Britain?
Spectator (UK)•Sep 13, 2025
CBS logo
Netanyahu warns Israel may strike Hamas in Qatar again after Trump declares it "will not happen"
CBS•Sep 11, 2025
NPR Online News logo
Israel has hunted its top enemies around the Middle East. What has it achieved?
NPR Online News•Sep 11, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9% chance
81

How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?

0
72.3%
1-4
17.2%
5-24
9.5%
1 other
70 forecasters

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100
Yes
1,000
Yes
3,000
5%
144 forecasters
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature