Question
After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 10
Make a Prediction
| Community Prediction for Harris winning the election | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
ResolvedOver 50% (>50%) | 88.1% | |||
46%-50%, inclusive (≥46% and ≤50%) | 9.9% | |||
Under 46% (>46%) | 2% | |||
Total: ?
(? remaining)Which of these actually happened?Over 50% (>50%)
Community Baseline Score
37.0
Community Peer Score
22.0
Authors:
Opened:Aug 3, 2024
Closes:Aug 10, 2024
Resolves:Aug 30, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 4, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Aug 3, 2024
Closes:Aug 10, 2024
Resolves:Aug 30, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 4, 2024
