Question

Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?

Resolved:Yes

49 comments49

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction

85%

(82% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 8, 2024

Closes:

Aug 9, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 28, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 9, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Kicks Off With First Named Storm

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.7

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 8, 2024

Closes:

Aug 9, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 28, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 9, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Kicks Off With First Named Storm

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.7

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%