Question

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction

69%

(55% - 75%)

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50%

community: 69%

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Aug 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2024

Law

Artificial Intelligence

Congress might block state AI laws for five years — here’s what it means

TechCrunch•Jun 30, 2025

US lawmakers introduce bill to bar Chinese AI in US government agencies

•Jun 30, 2025

Did AI companies win a fight with authors? Technically

Verge•Jun 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Aug 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2024

Law

Artificial Intelligence

Congress might block state AI laws for five years — here’s what it means

TechCrunch•Jun 30, 2025

US lawmakers introduce bill to bar Chinese AI in US government agencies

•Jun 30, 2025

Did AI companies win a fight with authors? Technically

Verge•Jun 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%