Question

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

-3

4 comments4

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction

75%

(60% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 13, 2024

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Forecasting AI Futures

Artificial Intelligence

'Malicious' AI willing to sacrifice human lives to avoid replacement: study

New York Post•Jun 23, 2025

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

Business Insider•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

30%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%