Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

38 forecasters

-1

38 forecasters

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

5 comments45 forecasters

AI causes 1K deaths or $200B loss?

9 comments84 forecasters

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

26 comments148 forecasters

AI incident causes $1bn damage before 2032

45 comments468 forecasters

GC to be caused by AI, if it occurs?

2 comments51 forecasters

CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off

13 comments45 forecasters

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

10 comments57 forecasters

5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?

22 comments329 forecasters

AI catastrophe to cause (near) extinction