Question

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

-2

4 comments4

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

80%

(66.6% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 13, 2024

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Forecasting AI Futures

Artificial Intelligence

Tech Workers Prepping for AI Apocalypse: Working Out, Economic Crash

Business Insider•Aug 17, 2025

The ‘godfather of AI’ reveals the only way humanity can survive superintelligent AI

CNN•Aug 13, 2025

Will Robots Fear Death?

Psychology Today•Aug 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

30%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%