Question

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction

96%

(88% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 13, 2024

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Artificial Intelligence

Breitbart•Jun 24, 2025

'Malicious' AI willing to sacrifice human lives to avoid replacement: study

New York Post•Jun 23, 2025

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

24%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%