📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Falcon Heavy booster landing redux: How many boosters will Falcon Heavy Flight 2 land successfully?

Resolved :32.61
4
9
Total Forecasters24
Community Prediction2.61 (2.18 - 2.85)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
2.175
2.612
2.846

What was the final result?3

Community Baseline Score
52.8
Community Peer Score
29.2
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Space
Technology
2019 Leaderboard
Autonomous spaceport drone ship
SpaceX reusable launch system
Elon Musk
Falcon Heavy
Cape Canaveral
List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches
SpaceX

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