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71
37
forecasters
71 comments
37 forecasters
AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3
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Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?
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93 forecasters
No debates between nominees in US elections in the following years?
2021-2022
Annulled
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
Annulled
2027-2028
8%
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28%
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Current estimate
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in 9 hours
%
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Trump wins Peace Prize before 2029?
0.5%
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93 forecasters
≥3 Senate or governor races hold no debates in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
19%
2027-2028
20%
32 comments
143 forecasters
Trump Ukraine War Resolution
37%
chance
13 comments
103 forecasters
Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?
20%
chance
1 comment
23 forecasters
Will a UFC event occur at the White House in 2026?
62.4%
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