12 comments
48 forecasters
Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?
1.4%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 13, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolved:Feb 10, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 16, 2024
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
2% chance
253
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
Aug 2033
(12 Apr 2030 - >Jan 2040)
Aug 2033
(12 Apr 2030 - >Jan 2040)
15 forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
97