Question

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

Resolved:No
Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction
38.3%
(23% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 38.3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
0.0
Community Peer Score
0.0
Opened:Aug 14, 2024
Closes:Aug 15, 2024
Resolves:Oct 2, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 15, 2024
Include Bots:Yes