61 comments
32 forecasters
Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?
57.5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 57% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 14, 2024
Closes:Aug 15, 2024
Resolved:Sep 30, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 15, 2024
Include Bots:Yes
Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?
33.3% chance
6
Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?
3% chance
54
Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?
23% chance
55