CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

conditional

condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

11 forecasters

if yes

if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

59%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

45%

3 comments3

Make a Prediction

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe	CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 59%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2100

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2100

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%