Question

Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

58 comments58

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

13%

(4% - 22%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 20, 2024

Closes:

Aug 21, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 21, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

67.2%

How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?

4.65

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 20, 2024

Closes:

Aug 21, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 21, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

67.2%

How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?

4.65