Question

Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?

Resolved:No

58 comments58

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

13%

(4% - 22%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 20, 2024

Closes:

Aug 21, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 21, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Plurality of Americans Believe 'Civil War' Likely in Next Decade—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 17, 2025

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Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

66%

How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?

4.62

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 20, 2024

Closes:

Aug 21, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 21, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Plurality of Americans Believe 'Civil War' Likely in Next Decade—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

66%

How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?

4.62