Question
On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 12
Make a Prediction
| Organization | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
ResolvedOpenAI | 82.4% | |||
Anthropic | 14.2% | |||
Google / DeepMind | 3% | |||
Meta | 0.1% | |||
Microsoft | 0.1% | |||
xAI | 0.1% | |||
Other | 0.1% | |||
Total: ?
(? remaining)Which of these actually happened?OpenAI
Community Baseline Score
60.2
Community Peer Score
-1.7
Authors:
Opened:Aug 14, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Aug 14, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2024
