109 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

54%chance

11 pp this week

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

anna.k.hennig pashka24

Opened:

Aug 29, 2024

Closes:

Jan 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 30, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 5, 2024

Ukraine Lawmakers Move to Nominate Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize

Breitbart•Sep 30, 2025

Trump claims he ended 7 wars. Here's the truth

Snopes•Sep 27, 2025

Ukraine President Zelensky says he’s ‘ready’ to step aside after Russia war ends

New York Post•Sep 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026

1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025

1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025