113 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

50%chance

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Authors:

anna.k.hennig pashka24

Opened:

Aug 29, 2024

Closes:

Jan 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 30, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 5, 2024

Trump Can Force An Endgame In The War Between Ukraine And Russia

American Thinker•Oct 23, 2025

Why planned Trump-Putin talks collapsed, and what it means for Ukraine

Al Jazeera•Oct 22, 2025

Trump doesn’t understand what Putin wants

Spectator (UK)•Oct 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026

1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025

1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025