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32 comments
107 forecasters

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

65%chance
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Authors:
anna.k.hennigpashka24
Opened:Aug 29, 2024
Closes:Jan 30, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 30, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 5, 2024
Verity
Geopolitics
NBC logo
Trump will be feted by Britain's royal family as Europe seeks help in ending Ukraine's war
NBC•Sep 16, 2025
NBC logo
Make Putin fear you: Ukraine says it's time Trump took a 'clear position' on Russia
NBC•Sep 16, 2025
Newsweek logo
Zelensky Presses Trump for 'Clear Position' on Ukraine
Newsweek•Sep 16, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

6% chance
1.8k

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026
97.2%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
2.5%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0.1%
2 others
74 forecasters

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Less than 30 days
53%
91 days or more
21.1%
61-90 days
12%
2 others
82 forecasters
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