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47
31
forecasters
47 comments
31 forecasters
AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3
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Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?
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Claude Code with Claude Pro through 2026?
57.8%
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Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
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28%
chance
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Date Anthropic reaches ASL-4?
Current estimate
24 Jan 2028
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Date that Anthropic reports an AI reached CBRN level 4?
Current estimate
09 Jul 2027