Question

Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters72

Community Prediction

81%

(75% - 86%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

3.3

Community Baseline Score

57.2

Authors:

datscilly

Opened:

May 23, 2019

Closes:

Oct 31, 2019

Resolves:

Nov 19, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

May 25, 2019

Computing and Math

2019 Leaderboard

What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?

Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?

60%

Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?

40%