Question
Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?
Resolved:YesTotal Forecasters72
Community Prediction
81%
(75% - 86%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Baseline Score
57.2
Community Peer Score
3.3
Authors:
Opened:May 23, 2019
Closes:Oct 31, 2019
Resolves:Nov 19, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:May 25, 2019
What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?
68.4
Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?
57.3%
Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?
40%
Authors:
Opened:May 23, 2019
Closes:Oct 31, 2019
Resolves:Nov 19, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:May 25, 2019
What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?
68.4
Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?
57.3%
Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?
40%