Question

Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

54 comments54

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

(1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 22, 2024

Closes:

Aug 23, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts

Daily Mail•Jun 20, 2025

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Al Jazeera•Jun 17, 2025

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

75%

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

10%

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

11%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 22, 2024

Closes:

Aug 23, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts

Daily Mail•Jun 20, 2025

Israel strikes Iran: Is the world close to a nuclear radiation incident?

Al Jazeera•Jun 17, 2025

World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI

Al Jazeera•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

75%

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

10%

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

11%