29 forecasters

Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?

55%chance

55%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 55% chance, and it resolved No.

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 23, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

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US public health officials vigilant as newer mpox variant detected

Guardian•Nov 1, 2025

Urgent warning over rise in deadlier mpox cases in Europe and US as UK officials fear virus may be spreading undetected

Daily Mail•Oct 29, 2025

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