Question

Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

52 comments52

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

60%

(30% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 23, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Whatever happened to mpox? Is it still a threat?

NPR Online News•Sep 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

44%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 23, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Whatever happened to mpox? Is it still a threat?

NPR Online News•Sep 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

44%