29 forecasters

Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?

60%chance

60%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 60% chance, and it resolved No.

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 23, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3

🏆 2024 Leaderboard

Urgent warning over rise in deadlier mpox cases in Europe and US as UK officials fear virus may be spreading undetected

Daily Mail•Oct 29, 2025

Mpox strain surfaces in US without international travel, raising fears of wider outbreak

FOX News•Oct 23, 2025

California records more local cases of new deadlier mpox strain as expert warns virus could spread to more states

Daily Mail•Oct 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch