Question

Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

56 comments56

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

31%

(25% - 38.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 26, 2024

Closes:

Aug 27, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Whatever happened to mpox? Is it still a threat?

NPR Online News•Sep 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

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Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 26, 2024

Closes:

Aug 27, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Whatever happened to mpox? Is it still a threat?

NPR Online News•Sep 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Aug 2039