Question

Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

56 comments56

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

15%

(7.2% - 22%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 26, 2024

Closes:

Aug 27, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Why on Earth is the Ukraine war still going strong?

Strategic Culture•Sep 2, 2025

Russia advances in Kupiansk, rejects US push for Zelenskyy-Putin summit

Al Jazeera•Aug 28, 2025

Moscow says Kyiv has struck a nuclear power plant as Ukraine marks Independence Day

PBS NewsHour•Aug 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

15%

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

16%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 26, 2024

Closes:

Aug 27, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 27, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Why on Earth is the Ukraine war still going strong?

Strategic Culture•Sep 2, 2025

Russia advances in Kupiansk, rejects US push for Zelenskyy-Putin summit

Al Jazeera•Aug 28, 2025

Moscow says Kyiv has struck a nuclear power plant as Ukraine marks Independence Day

PBS NewsHour•Aug 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

15%

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

16%