Question

Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?

Resolved:No

61 comments61

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

28%

(22.5% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Aug 27, 2024

Closes:

Aug 28, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 12, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 28, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?

55%

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

59%

Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?

90%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Aug 27, 2024

Closes:

Aug 28, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 12, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 28, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?

55%

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

59%

Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?

90%