Question

Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction

0.5%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

95.3

Community Peer Score

6.0

Authors:

pedroacosta

Opened:

Aug 28, 2024

Closes:

Oct 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 29, 2024

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

96.1

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

45%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%

Authors:

pedroacosta

Opened:

Aug 28, 2024

Closes:

Oct 1, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 29, 2024

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

96.1

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

45%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%