Question

Are we in a simulated reality? Part I

Resolved:No

19 comments19

Total Forecasters146

Community Prediction

16%

(7% - 31%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

73.8

Community Peer Score

39.7

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jul 15, 2016

Closes:

Mar 15, 2017

Resolves:

Jun 5, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 15, 2016

Natural Sciences

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Space

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

13.1

Do we live in a false vacuum?

50%

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jul 15, 2016

Closes:

Mar 15, 2017

Resolves:

Jun 5, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 15, 2016

Natural Sciences

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Space

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

13.1

Do we live in a false vacuum?

50%

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%