19 comments
146 forecasters
Are we in a simulated reality? Part I
16%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 16% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2016
Closes:Mar 15, 2017
Resolved:Jun 5, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2016
Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?
11.8 billion years
(0.201 - 13.9)
11.8 billion years
(0.201 - 13.9)
23 forecasters
Do we live in a false vacuum?
50% chance
31
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.3% chance
434