66 forecasters

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?

99.9%chance

99.9%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 100% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

pashka24 anna.k.hennig EdwardStoppard

Opened:

Sep 4, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolved:

Oct 8, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 5, 2024

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Hezbollah warns Gulf countries are next if Israel defeats militants

Associated Press•Sep 10, 2025

Israeli Airstrikes in Northeast Lebanon Kill Five, Wound Five

AntiWar•Sep 9, 2025

Israeli strikes kill five in Lebanon in latest ceasefire breach

Al Jazeera•Sep 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?