66 forecasters

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?

99.9%chance

99.9%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 100% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

pashka24 anna.k.hennig EdwardStoppard

Opened:

Sep 4, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolved:

Oct 8, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 5, 2024

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Lebanon’s terrible year: From exploding pagers to Israeli occupation

Al Jazeera•Sep 17, 2025

Hezbollah warns Gulf countries are next if Israel defeats militants

Associated Press•Sep 10, 2025

Israeli Airstrikes in Northeast Lebanon Kill Five, Wound Five

AntiWar•Sep 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch