Question

Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

55 comments55

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

25%

(9.2% - 45%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 30, 2024

Closes:

Aug 31, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 31, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

One year after his arrest, Pavel Durov says he'd 'rather die' than give third parties access to messages on Telegram

Business Insider•Aug 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?

10%

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

11%

Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?

60%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 30, 2024

Closes:

Aug 31, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 31, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

One year after his arrest, Pavel Durov says he'd 'rather die' than give third parties access to messages on Telegram

Business Insider•Aug 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?

10%

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

11%

Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?

60%