assembling quantitative contingencies aggregating definitive insights delivering predictive contingencies crowdsourcing contingent understanding delivering contingent insights mapping the future forecasting definitive estimations composing critical futures computing intelligent understanding generating calibrated understanding aggregating critical predictions formulating contingent insights forecasting probable forecasts computing definitive forecasts

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?

Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of top charities, of which there are currently four.

One of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is reducing wild animal suffering. ACE currently lists two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.

At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of "Top Charity" and a type of work of "Reducing Wild Animal Suffering"?

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.