Question

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No
58
Total Forecasters33
Community Prediction
47.8%
(35% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 47.8%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
0.0
Community Peer Score
0.0
Authors:
Tom_Metaculus
Opened:Sep 2, 2024
Closes:Sep 3, 2024
Resolves:Oct 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 3, 2024
Include Bots:Yes
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