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33 forecasters

33 forecasters

AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?

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4 comments63 forecasters

Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?

12 comments177 forecasters

AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

3 comments19 forecasters

Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?

4 comments72 forecasters

Open-source AI regulation 2028

6 comments60 forecasters

When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?

Current estimate

3 comments51 forecasters

AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?

5 comments10 forecasters

When will LLMs beat superforecasters at ForecastBench?

Current estimate

22 comments30 forecasters

General AI solves International Math Olympiad

Current estimate