102 comments
686 forecasters
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 21, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 22, 2019
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
80% chance
174
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20