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686 forecasters

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686 forecasters

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?

ResolvedYes

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35 comments193 forecasters

No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035

7 comments27 forecasters

Date of First Nuclear Detonation

Current estimate

0 comments24 forecasters

First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent

0 comments31 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

1 comment21 forecasters

First detonation accidental/unauthorized?

69 comments529 forecasters

At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050

0 comments53 forecasters

Total Nuclear Disarmament before 2075

35 comments233 forecasters

Global Thermonuclear War by 2070