Question

Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?

Resolved:No

93 comments93

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

20%

(15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 12, 2024

Closes:

Sep 13, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 13, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Kicks Off With First Named Storm

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Category 4 Hurricane Erick Close To Landfall With A Familiar Story

Forbes•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.7

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 12, 2024

Closes:

Sep 13, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 13, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Kicks Off With First Named Storm

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Category 4 Hurricane Erick Close To Landfall With A Familiar Story

Forbes•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.7

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%