Question

Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?

Resolved:Yes

97 comments97

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

37.5%

(19.9% - 42%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 37.5%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 12, 2024

Closes:

Sep 13, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 26, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 13, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

20%

Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?

30%

Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?

80%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 12, 2024

Closes:

Sep 13, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 26, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 13, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

20%

Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?

30%

Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?

80%