Question

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

Resolved:Yes

29 comments29

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

28.6

Community Peer Score

44.7

Authors:

RuslanBes

Opened:

Sep 13, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 16, 2024

Geopolitics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2025

•Jun 22, 2025

One million and counting: Russian casualties hit milestone in Ukraine war

Guardian•Jun 22, 2025

Putin Sending Dead Russian Soldiers to Ukraine To Hide Losses: Zelensky

Newsweek•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

85%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

54%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%