11 comments
52 forecasters
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
Current estimate
82.5k humans
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 27, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 29, 2019
When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?
Mar 2073
(Dec 2041 - 2204)
Mar 2073
(Dec 2041 - 2204)
173 forecasters
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?
7620 $
(138 - 381k)
7620 $
(138 - 381k)
41 forecasters
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.3% chance
434