26 comments
173 forecasters
When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?
Current estimate
Nov 2073
Authors:
Opened:Jun 29, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2019
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
93.7k humans
(649 - 17M)
93.7k humans
(649 - 17M)
52 forecasters
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?
7620 $
(138 - 381k)
7620 $
(138 - 381k)
41 forecasters
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1% chance
434