119 forecasters

When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?

Current estimate

16 Sep 2029

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 2, 2019

Closes:

Jul 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 4, 2019

Economy & Business

NASA’s Boss Just Shook Up the Agency’s Plans to Land on the Moon

Wired•Oct 22, 2025

SpaceX could have Artemis competition. What to know as NASA revisits moon landing plans

USA Today•Oct 21, 2025

SpaceX moon landing contract with NASA in jeopardy, space agency chief suggests

CNN•Oct 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch