Question
If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?
Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction
4919 warheads
(4215 warheads - 6581 warheads)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 4215 | — |
| median | 4919 | — |
| upper 75% | 6581 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >100k | 0.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 3, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 5, 2019
Authors:
Opened:Jul 3, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 5, 2019
