Question
If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?
Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction
4777 warheads
(4178 warheads - 6161 warheads)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 4178 | — |
| median | 4777 | — |
| upper 75% | 6161 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >100k | 0.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 3, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 5, 2019
Authors:
Opened:Jul 3, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 5, 2019
