Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
43
28
forecasters
43 comments
28 forecasters
AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3
1 more...
Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
No
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (43)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
3 comments
19 forecasters
Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?
14.5%
chance
11 comments
175 forecasters
AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?
98%
chance
1 comment
68 forecasters
Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?
99%
chance
27 comments
124 forecasters
Will Claude Mythos be released before Sep 2026?
80%
chance
22 comments
30 forecasters
General AI solves International Math Olympiad
Current estimate
23 Jul 2026
26 comments
739 forecasters
Top ARC-AGI-2 score in 2026?
Current estimate
92.8
6 comments
60 forecasters
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?
Current estimate
26 Dec 2027
6 comments
784 forecasters
Will OpenAI file for an IPO in 2026?
80%
chance